Conquer, Colonize, or Settle
Perhaps the single greatest misperception that the science establishment continues to falsly perpetuate is the assumption that life in space or on other worlds will be a gleaming, clean, technological wonder, populated by highly trained, highly paid, science geeks, who come back home at the end of a week or a month.
This is so far from reality as to be laughable. The first true settlement on the frontier will be a place where people live by their wits, determination, and with a minimum of tech and tools. Rather than a gleaming testament to plodding technology, it will be a simple home with residents struggling at times to maintain their atmosphere, food and water stores.
Why you ask? First, because of the money. In order to send a single pound of anything into orbit it costs on the order of $10,000 USD. That is prohibitive, period. Just a few figures:
The U.S. Space Shuttle costs $600M/flight or $100M /
person with a 6 person crew, and 1 or 2 tons of cargo.
A Russian Soyuz launch costs $12M - $20M per person,
with a 3 person crew and a few hundred pounds of cargo.
Even a private rocket company is going to be seriously challenged to get the price per pound (ppp) below the 10k mark. The idea that someone might invent a new rocket launch system in their garage that will work more effectively is likely a bit far from the mark must be tempered by the fact that any rocket engine test (by an impulse or reaction engine) is likely to destroy the garage on the first test.
A huge locomotive is a VERY expensive machine. And, yes, it can pull a HUGE load. But it wasn't until it got into general use that other technologies surfaced to provide alternatives. While the automobile provided the individual the freedom to move about quickly, it was the airplane that challenged the premier rail systems for passengers and small cargo. Today it is the airplane that is the premier travel choice to travel long distances. Is rail dead? No, there are some cargo that can only travel by rail, but sadly even this has been challenged by long-haul trucking.
Why is this important? Because for rocketry to become a "premier" travel option, it must be in GENERAL use. Available to individuals for travel to some defined destination. Right now the only destination is either sub-orbit, or the ISS. Science may drive research, but it is economics that drives business and it is people and their desires for the next best thing that drives the economics! Give the public a "cost-value" destination and they will come in droves.
But even so, tourism is but a small component of moving people to a new destination en masse. By looking at history again, we can see how the new world was successfully colonized. Consider the many groups from Europe that made the attempt and essentially failed to establish a maintainable colony. Most were not even interested in a colony, but conquering the new lands. In this vein, they send warriors and support personnel. This method of colonization inevitably fails.
But then we have the "missionary" efforts of the 14-1600's. These people came to live. They tagged along with the explorers and were let off with a minimum of supplies. They survived - for a time. Then we had the groups that wanted a new place to live. Remember, I said earlier that given a new destination, people will go. Well, the Americas were a new destination - a new "frontier", and people saw it with a new hope.
Space in general, and the moon specifically is our New Frontier destination for the masses. We have but to show how they, the settlers, can get it done and survive.
And I'll share that in the next episode.
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